Hey folks. While Bucket Reviews is only partially up and running--I'm writing a few reviews a week and working hard on The BucketCast with co-host Michael Lester--there's no way I could resist offering my picks and predictions for tonight's Oscars. Keep in mind that I didn't see a few notable nominees due to illness (Invictus, A Single Man, Nine, The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus, Coco Before Chanel, and The Last Station all escaped my grasp). But I'd say I'm still pretty qualified to comment, and maybe I can help you in your Oscar pool. So without further adieu...
My Final Predictions Tally: 14 out of 24 (58%). I've done worse before, but this was NOT a great showing for me! I should have stuck with the prognosticators and realized a Hurt Locker sweep.
Best Picture
The Nominees: "Avatar", "The Blind Side", "District 9", "An Education", "The Hurt Locker", "Inglourious Basterds", "Precious", "A Serious Man", "Up", and "Up in the Air".
My Prediction: "Avatar". The Hurt Locker may be the "chosen" one, but I think it'll be tough for voters to rid their minds of the fact that Avatar is the biggest movie ever made, and it was pretty damn good, too.
My Pick: "Inglourious Basterds". Tarantino made his best film to date and he deserves to take home the trophy. But, barring a miracle vote-split between Avatar and The Hurt Locker due to the new Academy tabulation rules, this WWII-set Western doesn't have a shot. Look for it to be honored in the Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay categories instead.
Winner: "The Hurt Locker". I guess the "chosen one" was going to win after all!
Best Director
The Nominees: James Cameron for "Avatar", Kathryn Bigelow for "The Hurt Locker", Quentin Tarantino for "Inglourious Basterds", Lee Daniels for "Precious", Jason Reitman for "Up in the Air".
My Prediction: Kathryn Bigelow for "The Hurt Locker". There's no doubt that she'll be the first woman to take home the golden trophy, and deservedly so.
My Pick: James Cameron for "Avatar". Ironically, here's where Avatar really deserves the love. Cameron helmed a sprawling, massive opus with so much control and precision it's just astounding.
Winner: Kathryn Bigelow for "The Hurt Locker"
Best Actor
The Nominees: Jeff Bridges for "Crazy Heart", George Clooney for "Up in the Air", Colin Firth for "A Single Man", Morgan Freeman for "Invictus", and Jeremy Renner for "The Hurt Locker".
My Prediction: Jeff Bridges for "Crazy Heart". A lock.
My Pick: Jeremy Renner for "The Hurt Locker". I love Bridges' work, but Renner edges him out, if only because it may be easier for me to recognize the grandness of the performance because it's so physical and hangs on the actor's sleeve.
Winner: Jeff Bridges for "Crazy Heart".
Best Actress
The Nominees: Sandra Bullock for "The Blind Side", Helen Mirren for "The Last Station", Carey Mulligan for "An Education", Gabourey Sidibe for "Precious", and Meryl Streep for "Julie & Julia".
My Prediction: Sandra Bullock for "The Blind Side". It's pretty certain, but there could be a Streep or (in my dreams) Mulligan upset.
My Pick: Carey Mulligan for "An Education". By far and away the best performance and, I think it's the one that would win if Hollywood politics weren't so deeply involved in the voting process.
Winner: Sandra Bullock for "The Blind Side". Is it just me, or was that speech taken from an early draft from Bullock's Miss Congeniality?
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Matt Damon for "Invictus", Woody Harrelson for "The Messenger", Christopher Plummer for "The Last Station, Stanley Tucci for "The Lovely Bones", Christoph Waltz for "Inglourious Basterds".
My Prediction: Christoph Waltz for "Inglourious Basterds". Another lock.
My Pick: Christoph Waltz for "Inglourious Basterds". He gave what may end up the singular most iconic performance of 2009.
Winner: Christoph Waltz for "Inglourious Basterds". How disappointing was it that his speech didn't live up to those that he delivered at previous awards shows?
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Penélope Cruz for "Nine", Vera Farmiga for "Up in the Air", Maggie Gyllenhaal for "Crazy Heart", Anna Kendrick for "Up in the Air", and Mo'Nique for "Precious".
My Prediction: Mo'Nique for "Precious". Locks, locks, and more locks.
My Pick: Maggie Gyllenhaal for "Crazy Heart". Frankly, at this point, I'm ABM (Anybody But Mo'Nique). Yeah, she was brilliant in Precious, but listening to the woman deliver yet another heavy-handed acceptance speech is a miserable (if inevitable) sounding prospect. An unexpected Gyllenhaal or Anna Kendrick upset would be so blissful I might spontaneously combust if it were to happen.
Winner: Mo'Nique for "Precious".
Best Original Screenplay
The Nominees: "The Hurt Locker", "Inglourious Basterds", "The Messenger", "A Serious Man", and "Up".
My Prediction: "Inglourious Basterds". I have enough love for Tarantino dialogue that I'm not even considering the potential Hurt Locker spoiler people have been talking about.
My Pick: "Inglourious Basterds". But, I must say, it's a solid category all-around, my quibbles with "Up" aside.
Winner: "The Hurt Locker". Blah!
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees: "District 9", "An Education", "In the Loop", "Precious", and "Up in the Air"
My Prediction: "Up in the Air". Yet another lock!
My Pick: "Up in the Air". Yeah, Jason Reitman may be a bit of a hot-head, but he's got the goods to back it up. This was one terrifically written movie. We'll have to see if he and co-writer Sheldon Turner get along or continue a rumored feud when they accept their statues.
Winner: "Precious". What a surprise! I'm not complaining -- Fletcher's speech was heartfelt. But one wonders if the bad press about Reitman was responsible for Up in the Air's loss here.
Best Film Editing
The Nominees: "Avatar", "District 9", "The Hurt Locker", "Inglourious Basterds", and "Precious".
My Prediction: "Avatar". Isn't it funny that the longest movie always tends to win?
My Pick: "Inglourious Basterds". Along with Precious, it's the only one of the nominees I didn't have certain problems with in the editing category (i.e. the way-too-long final battle in Avatar and the off-the-rails third-act in The Hurt Locker).
Winner: "The Hurt Locker".
Best Animated Feature
The Nominees: "Coraline", "Fantastic Mr. Fox", "The Princess and the Frog", "The Secret of Kells", and "Up".
My Prediction: "Up". Are there enough locks already? Pixar triumphs every Oscars they're in...
My Pick: "Coraline". It's the only one of the nominees I'm a HUGE fan of. Why didn't Ponyo or Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs make the cut?
Winner: "Up".
Best Art Direction
The Nominees: "Avatar", "The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus", "Nine", "Sherlock Holmes", "The Young Victoria".
My Prediction: "Avatar".
My Pick: "Avatar".
Winner: "Avatar".
Best Cinematography
The Nominees: "Avatar", "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince", "The Hurt Locker", "Inglourious Basterds", and "The White Ribbon".
My Prediction: "Avatar".
My Pick: "Inglourious Basterds". Avatar may be the most technical of the bunch, but I'll stand by Tarantino's precise opus as the best lensed.
Winner: "Avatar".
Best Documentary Feature
The Nominees: "Burma VJ", "The Cove", "Food, Inc.", "The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsburg and the Pentagon Papers", and "Which Way Home".
My Prediction: "The Cove". What was I saying about locks again?
My Pick: "Burma VJ". It's absolutely heartstopping doc that you should make an effort to see when it's out on DVD!
Winner: "The Cove". I felt so bad that director Louis Psihoyos, who's so passionate about the film and the cause, was cut off before he even got to speak! They should've brought the guy back up because, frankly, docs matter too.
Best Documentary Short
The Nominees: "China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of the Sichuan Province", "The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner", "The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant", Music by Prudence", and "Rabit a la Berlin".
My Prediction: "The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant". Your guess is as good as mine, however -- I'm just going by the titles on this one.
My Pick: n/a -- Why don't they make these available on VOD like the Animated and Live Action Shorts?
Winner: "Music by Prudence".
Best Animated Short
The Nominees: "French Roast", "Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty", "The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)", "Logorama", and "A Matter of Loaf and Death".
My Prediction: "A Matter of Loaf and Death". Just by virtue of the fact that Wallace and Gromit are an established name in animation and this is a pretty fun outing for the duo... but in my dreams there'll be an upset by...
My Pick: "The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)". It's visually astounding in every shot, energetic and surprising at every turn, blissfully funny--just perfect. Hope it wins!
Winner: "Logorama". The worst of the bunch. The lesson: if your film contains a bunch of anti-corporate messages, you can win an Oscar too!
Best Live Action Short
The Nominees: "The Door", "Instead of Abracadabra", "Kavi", "Miracle Fish", and "The New Tenants".
My Prediction: "The Door". I haven't gotten around to watching these yet--we'll cover them on next week's BucketCast once I have--but film-friends tell me this is the best of the bunch and will win.
My Pick: n/a -- Again, stay tuned for next week's BucketCast to find out.
Winner: "The New Tenants". Look forward to seeing this one!
Best Costume Design
The Nominees: "Bright Star", "Coco Before Chanel", "The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus", "Nine", and "The Young Victoria".
My Prediction: "The Young Victoria". When in doubt, go with the most lavish, British costumes!
My Pick: "Bright Star". It's not as showy as the other nominees, but the costumes here really allowed director Jane Campion to present us the most naturalistic vision of this time period the screen has ever seen.
Winner: "The Young Victoria". A speech with some food for thought -- how about that!
Best Makeup
The Nominees: "Il Divo", "Star Trek", and "The Young Victoria".
My Prediction: "Star Trek", just 'cuz it's more elaborate than the other two.
My Pick: "Star Trek".
Winner: "Star Trek".
Best Foreign Language Film
The Nominees: "Ajami", "El Secreto en Sus Ojos", "The Milk of Sorrow", "Un Prophete", and "The White Ribbon".
My Prediction: "Un Prophete". While common wisdom would tell you that "The White Ribbon" will win, I think the momentum has been moving in the direction of this just-released French film.
My Pick: n/a -- You know it was a down Oscar season for me when I didn't see a single one of the always-excellent Foreign Film nominees. But so it goes, I'll catch up with them soon enough.
Winner: "El Secreto en Sus Ojos". Oh, how the rules of the award--that voters have to see all five nominees--can result in surprise victories!
Best Original Score
The Nominees: "Avatar", "Fantastic Mr. Fox", "The Hurt Locker", "Sherlock Holmes", and "Up".
My Prediction: "Up". Because the brilliant Michael Giacchino deserves to receive his due.
My Pick: "The Fantastic Mr. Fox". While I love Giacchino's work and won't be unhappy at all to see him finally win, it was Alexendre Desplat's wonderful, zany score for the Wes Anderson animated film that I loved the most.
Winner: "Up".
Best Original Song
The Nominees: "Almost There" from "The Princess and the Frog", "Down in New Orleans" from "The Princess and the Frog", "Loin de Paname" from "Paris 36", "Take it All" from "Nine", and "The Weary Kind" from "Crazy Heart".
My Prediction: "The Weary Kind" from "Crazy Heart". Another sure thing.
My Pick: "The Weary Kind" from "Crazy Heart". It is indeed the best.
Winner: "The Weary Kind" from "Crazy Heart".
Best Sound Editing
The Nominees: "Avatar", "The Hurt Locker", "Inglourious Basterds", "Star Trek", "Up".
My Prediction: "Avatar". It seems like it'll sweep the technicals, but I wouldn't be surprised if The Hurt Locker or even Star Trek won.
My Pick: "Avatar".
Winner: "The Hurt Locker". I think you can join me in giving this a colossal "WTF!?"
Best Sound Mixing
The Nominees: "Avatar", "The Hurt Locker", "Inglourious Basterds", "Star Trek", "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen".
My Prediction: "Avatar". See the above category.
My Pick: "Star Trek". The blue guys can't win everything, can they? This is the best sound I heard all year, and it's brilliantly preserved on the Blu-Ray's Dolby 5.1 soundtrack.
Winner: "The Hurt Locker". Again, no offense to the movie, but WTF!?
Best Visual Effects
The Nominees: "Avatar", "District 9", and "Star Trek".
My Prediction: "Avatar". I'd suspect ballot-fraud for the whole show if one of the other two won.
My Pick: "Avatar". Because, you know, it was kind of the best.
Winner: "Avatar".
The Film to Take Home the Most Oscars: "Avatar", with 7. Which is really an achievement given it wasn't nominated in many categories that it perhaps should have been. Look for it to sweep the technicals. Winner: "The Hurt Locker" with 6. Wild that Cameron's technical behemoth only took home 3!
And that's that, folks. Join me in watching the Oscars live tonight at 5 PM PST / 8 PM EST, only on ABC.
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