After taking a week off from writing the full-length version of this column due to a rigorous week of midterms at school--thank God that's over--I'm back and ready to offer up analysis and comparisons on this week's releases. However, it's unfortunate for my reputation that I didn't completely check out last Friday, instead still offering my customary prediction of what the top 10 would look like... which I totally flubbed, over-inflating the potential of all three major releases. It wasn't hard to see why they didn't do as well as I had guessed once I saw them, though -- talk about bad movies. Wall Street 2 was the best of the bunch, but even that was mediocre at best. You Again and Legend of the Guardians were painful to sit through, as if they had been left over from August.
This weekend, on the other hand, brings us two critically acclaimed films: Aaron Sorkin and David Fincher's take on the origin-story of Facebook, The Social Network, and Matt Reeves' update of the Swedish vampire movie Let the Right One in, Amerisimplified to just Let Me In. Even if they turn out to be box-office duds--unlikely in the case of the former--they at least promise to offer enriching moviegoing experiences. But if they're not your thing--meaning you're intellectually void--then there's always Case 39, a horror flick starring real-life couple Renee Zellweger and Bradley Cooper that has been sitting on the shelf for ages. Or some Nikki Reed movie called Chain Letter that's surprisingly opening on over 400 screens.
I think The Social Network will be huge. With the best reviews of any movie all year (it's currently 98%-fresh with an average rating of 9.4/10 on Rotten Tomatoes), a built-in audience of Facebook addicts, and a distributor that is seemingly invincible this year (Sony), it's hard to see the movie underperforming. The real question is: how high is its ceiling? Most predictions have it at around $25 million, which I think errs way conservative. In fact, I think there's a great comparison that performed much better than that, and it may surprise some: Superbad.
Even though their genres are different, both movies carry natural appeal for almost every 17-to-25-year-old male and are able to expand their potential audience widely due to critical praise and word-of-mouth. Sure, Superbad demanded more immediate viewing because people wanted to see it with an enthusiastic crowd on opening night, avoiding any potential of having the jokes spoiled for them, but The Social Network boasts a PG-13 rating to counterbalance this. There are lots of 13-16 year-olds who use Facebook and who are, I'm sure, interested in how it came to be, while many in this age-group were barred from Superbad due to its R-rating. Facebook user = potential viewer, as far as I'm concerned. We could definitely see The Social Network perform as well as the aforementioned Judd Apatow-produced comedy hit, repeating its opening of $33.1 million.
Let Me In is tougher to predict. While it is technically a horror film and features a vampire, the material doesn't easily fit inside the mold of either genre and, hence, it may have a hard time attracting their built-in audiences. Likewise, while the 2008 original has become relatively popular for a foreign film in America, many of its fans might not want to see this remake, calling it "too soon" or a "rip-off." Then there's the matter of the distributor (Overture), which isn't exactly a big name and has only secured 2,020 theaters. However, in fairness, they did release this year's zombie remake The Crazies with great success and, as is the case with this movie, no big stars. (Has Chloe Moretz ascended to Timothy Olyphant-level fame with the popularity of Hit Girl?) Also boding well for Let Me In is the fact that it has damn good reviews, which should mean equally good word-of-mouth.
Frankly, it's tough to find good comparisons for Let Me In because it's pretty unique. My best bet is last year's Orphan, which was similarly R-rated and more cerebral than the usual Friday night horror film. That WB release played in over 700 more theaters, however, so its $12.6m opening might be a little high. But maybe not by much, as I could see Let Me In's rumored artistic excellence boosting it to around $11.4 million.
Then there's Case 39, which is, yes, a Paramount Vantage title. (Who were they again?) I was going to comment that its best chance at success would be kids buying tickets for it as their way to sneak into Let Me In, but then I realized it's R-rated as well. What a dump job! With bad reviews and uninspired marketing, this probably would have been better off going straight to video. (Ironically, it is already available on DVD in Europe, from where I ordered the copy that I will be watching tonight.) So who will go see Case 39? Fans of "dumb" horror? Older women who like Renee Zellweger but don't know what the movie's about? Beats me. Sparing it the embarrassment of a sub-$2,000 per theater average, I'll predict the movie manages to rake in $4.6 million.
Then there's Chain Letter, which I hadn't even heard of until showtimes were posted for the week. Somehow, first-time micro-distributor New Films Cinema has secured 401 playdates for this Nikki Reed (Twilight, Thirteen) vehicle. Even better yet: it's another R-rated horror film! While New Films Cinema probably chose the date because it was the only time they could get so many screens, it wasn't exactly a smart first business decision. Will Reed's Twilight fans show up to save the movie from a PTA worse than The Black Waters of Echo's Pond's measly $555 earlier this year? Given most of them are probably underage and Chain Letter faces so much R-rated horror competition, I doubt it. I reckon it'll only manage about $215,000 for the whole weekend.
My prediction of what the full top 10 will look like:
1. The Social Network ... $33.1m ($11,945 PTA)
2. Let Me In ... $11.4m ($5,644 PTA)
3. The Town ... $10.1m ($3,441 PTA) -35.3%
4. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps ... $10.1m ($2,808 PTA) -46.9%
5. Legend of the Guardians ... $10.0m ($2,797 PTA) -37.9%
6. Easy A ... $6.4m ($2,152 PTA) -39.6%
7. You Again ... $4.7m ($1,845 PTA) -44.1%
8. Case 39 ... $4.6m ($2,081 PTA)
9. Devil ... $3.0m ($1,250 PTA) -54.6%
10. Alpha and Omega ... $2.6m ($1,129 PTA) -45.1%
(Note that Legend of the Guardians and You Again should come out a bit higher than their "real" grosses, as sneak preview revenue for Life As We Know it and Secretariat, respectively, will likely be applied to their tallies. Hollywood works in mysterious ways.)
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