I've always been just as fascinated by the numbers behind movies as I am by the movies themselves. As a result, I don't see any reason not to join the cool kids and post weekly box office predictions. And what better time than now, when I'm revamping Bucket Reviews and getting back into the groove of reviewing and 'blogging, to do so? Without further adieu...
This weekend--the last before we hit true August "dumping ground" territory--brings three relatively big releases, two of them battling it out for #1. They are Sylvester Stallone's testosterone extravaganza starring practically every male action star that's ever lived, The Expendables, and the estrogen-magnet that is Julia Roberts in Eat Pray Love, based on the bestseller. The third release is Edgar Wright's comic-book adaptation Scott Pilgrim vs. The World, starring Michael Cera, which should place between third and fifth depending how well The Other Guys and Inception hold.
While Eat Pray Love has a chance at upsetting, I'm going to agree with the general consensus and say The Expendables will come out on top. While its R-rating may hurt its take among the banned teenage audience, the picture should do well among males of all ages over 17. (Not to mention, quite a few under-17s may end up a part of the total revenue given this could prove the ideal father-son outing.) Stallone's last Rambo picture only opened to $18.2m a couple years back, but The Expendables seems to have much broader appeal, as it features a long list of other headliners (Willis, Statham, Schwarzenegger, Lundgren, Rourke, etc) and isn't as dependent on the nostalgia factor.
There aren't that many R-rated, non-technology based (AKA not The Matrix) comparisons from recent years, which may actually work out in The Expendables' favor as demand for this type of film may be high due to scarcity. An obscure, but possibly apt comparison in terms of its appeal to several generations of males may be Clint Eastwood's Gran Torino, which pulled in $29.5m in its first weekend of wide release. Perhaps more similar are the Kill Bill films, which opened to $22.1m and $25.1m ($25.7m and $28.3m accounting for inflation), respectively. But The Expendables is playing in more theaters than any of those films (3,270 vs. 2,808; 3,102; and 2,971) and seems to have quite a bit of momentum on the advertising front, so I'll go out on a limb and say it does a strong $30 million.
Speaking of momentum-filled ad campaigns, you might think Eat Pray Love bought out every 30-second spot on every TV station this past week. Sony is clearly putting a lot of money behind this one and, after a success-filled summer (The Other Guys, Salt, Grown-Ups, The Karate Kid), they seem to know what they're doing. Reviews are horrendous, but then again, women love the book and they certainly love Julia Roberts, so this one may be critic-proof.
The easiest comparable to Eat Pray Love is Julie & Julia, which opened to just over $20m targeting the same audience on the same weekend last year. However, while that picture boasted great reviews and Meryl Streep, it had nowhere near the ad push that this one has. Couple that with the fact that Eat Pray Love appeals to a broader demographic of women than Julie & Julia due to the apparent increased interest of those under 40 (thanks to Roberts). I think Eat Pray Love should definitely open better than J&J and other older skewing chick-flicks like It's Complicated ($22.1m). But it definitely doesn't have the "date movie" appeal of something like Couples Retreat ($34.3m) because no healthy male would ever want to be subjected to such drivel. I'm going to go with $27.5 million on this one, which would certainly be a success by genre standards.
Then there's Scott Pilgrim vs. the World, which is certainly what I am most anticipating as a moderately cerebral young male. The blogosphere would have you believe that this movie is as big as Harry Potter because it's made up of, well, dudes exactly like me. However, in truth, I'm sure distributor Universal would be enthralled if the movie just came in third place.
Michael Cera isn't exactly a huge draw as the lead. His top two openings are Superbad ($33m), which came out before he was a household name, and Year One ($19m), which also starred big-draw Jack Black. The only two wide-release films in which he has been the main draw are Nick & Norah's Infinite Playlist ($11.3m) and Youth in Revolt ($6.8m), but those both played to different audiences than the one Scott Pilgrim is targeting. Likewise, writer/director Edgar Wright's previous two features, Shaun of the Dead ($3.3m) and Hot Fuzz ($5.8m), played to niche audiences in smaller release-platforms and are therefore not good comparisons. I suspect Scott Pilgrim will do moderately well with teens, 20-somethings, and comic-book devotees but hardly anyone else, which optimistically puts it in line for a $15 million opening.
There are hardly any limited releases of note this weekend. Disney is testing the waters with Hayao Miyazaki's son Goro's first feature, Tales of Earthsea, in five sites. Sony Classics is putting out the Aussie drama Animal Kingdom in a similarly small release, with expansions to come. Don't count on either making more than $10,000 per site.
My prediction of what the full top 10 will look like:
1. The Expendables ... $30m ($9,174 Per Theater Average)
2. Eat Pray Love ... $27.5m ($8,761 PTA)
3. The Other Guys ... $18.8m ($5,149 PTA) -47.1%
4. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World ... $15m ($5,323 PTA)
5. Inception ... $12.8m ($4,103 PTA) -30.8%
6. Step Up 3-D ... $7.2m ($2,952 PTA) -54.5%
7. Despicable Me $6.6m ($2,262 PTA) -28.9%
8. Salt ... $6.3m ($2,223 PTA) -42.2%
9. Dinner for Schmucks ... $4.9m ($1,609 PTA) -52.8%
10. Toy Story 3 ... $2.6m ($2,133 PTA) -16.6%
Have thoughts on this new feature? Like it, don't like it, want something added? Shoot me an e-mail at webmaster@bucketreviews.com.
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