Another weekend means new box office predictions. My inaugural guesses faired OK last weekend--I got the order mostly right and got within 10% on most of the holdovers--but there's a lot of room for improvement. This upcoming weekend is really anyone's guess; it brings us five new films that are basically August dump-jobs. Audiences get to pick from the family sequel Nanny McPhee Returns (read my review here), the urban comedy Lottery Ticket, the latest Friedberg/Seltzer paro-trocity Vampires Suck, the 3D-gorefest Piranha, and an old Miramax release called The Switch that has been gathering dust on the shelf for awhile.
With the exception of maybe Nanny McPhee Returns, I don't think any of those films have a chance at seizing the #1 slot. Once again, it would seem the battle is between Sylvester Stallone's The Expendables and the Julia Roberts-vehicle Eat Pray Love. Sly's action-extravaganza dominated the box office last weekend with a strong $34.8 million, but it's likely to have a big drop this weekend. Sly's 2008 Rambo dropped 60.9% week-over-week and I don't think there's a better comparison. That would put The Expendables in line for a weekend of $13.6m.
Eat Pray Love, on the other hand, opened to significantly less last weekend ($23.1m), but its drop should be comparatively soft. Last year's Julie & Julia, the best comparison, dropped 39.8% on its second weekend. I think Eat Pray Love will fall a little more than that because selling-point Roberts and the beloved source material suggest more front-loading. On this one, I'll go with a drop of 42.5%. That'd put Eat Pray Love in the neighborhood of $13.3m -- it'll be a real cage match for #1 among these two holdovers.
Close behind (if not ahead), undoubtedly, will be Nanny McPhee Returns. Yes, on one hand, the original did open to a very strong $14.5m in only about 2/3 of the theaters of this sequel. But the follow-up has two things going wrong for it: 1) it isn't as good as the first (contrary to the critical consensus) and 2) lots of kids are going back to school Monday, meaning they may spend the weekend shopping for supplies and getting ready rather than going to the movies. Last year, the kids film Shorts debuted in the same frame to a paltry $6.4m. That being said, I could definitely eat my words on this one come Sunday. For now, I'll go with my gut and pick a moderate number out of the sky -- $13.1m, I think.
Another noteworthy debut is Lottery Ticket. Over the years, box office prognosticators have been taught to never underestimate the urban comedy, which has a tendency to be marketed in African-American areas and nowhere else. Thus, those of us who live in other places are often unaware of the potential for success. Lottery Ticket could represent such a case. Marketing-wise, I sense a lot in common with First Sunday, which was likewise "dumped" in January to the unexpectedly profitable tune of $17.7m. However, the presence of the church in that film may have attracted the potent Tyler Perry audience more than this film will. Not to mention, Lottery Ticket skews pretty young, with once kid-rapper Bow Wow headlining. Bow Wow's previous film, 2005's Roll Bounce, opened in about 300 less theaters (1,625 vs. 1,937) to only $7.6m. Even calculating for inflation from 2005, that'd put Lottery Ticket at only around $8.3m by direct comparison. But my gut tells me the best comparison here is 2006's similarly young, African-American targeted ATL, which opened to $11.6m. Accounting for a little inflation, that'd put Lottery Ticket in line for an opening of $12.3m.
Next up is Friedberg/Selzer's Vampires Suck, which debuted yesterday to the tune of $4m. With most of the audience still out of school and the potential for front-loading rife, my guess is that Friday only matches that gross, and maybe even sees less. Not to mention, the Wednesday opening should fare worse for its over-the-weekend internal multiplier than the writer/director duo's previous August release, Disaster Movie, as most of the first-choice audience will have seen it already by Friday. Disaster Movie managed to multiply its Friday gross by an impressive 2.88, but I think Vampires Suck will be more in the realm of 2.5. That'd put its weekend at an even $10m.
Then there's the very-adult Piranha 3D, which has nifty ads, momentum online, and good early reviews funneling in. (After last weekend's Scott Pilgrim vs. the World bombing, however, one must be skeptical of all three things.) With a similar theater count to last year's My Bloody Valentine 3D, one could make a case that this one has a chance at coming out of left-field and replicating that picture's successful $21.2m opening, even considering internal problems at distributor Weinstein. But I wouldn't buy that argument for a second. Murderous piranhas and washed up '80s stars may sound cool to me and many other geeks online, but they don't make for the kind of mainstream success that the former 3D horror film enjoyed. The camp factor is high here. Very optimistically, I could go for the argument that this matches Snakes on a Plane's $13.8m, including the 3D-surcharge. But I think it will probably be lower, as the mainstream appeal just doesn't seem to be there. Another significant factor is that urban audiences make up a big percentage of the horror demographic, and they will be siphoned away by Lottery Ticket. Ultimately, I'm going to be a pessimist on this one. I'll go with last year's tropical horror film A Perfect Getaway's $6m opening, plus a big increase for 3D (I'd expect about 75% of tickets to be sold in that format), plus another $1.5m for additional geek interest. That'd put Piranha 3D at $9.9m, figuring average 2D ticket-prices of $8 and 3D of $11.
The last film of the lot is The Switch, which boasts all of the signs of a huuuge bomb. My best guess is it ends up splitting the difference between stars Jennifer Aniston and Jason Bateman's previous late-summer releases. Those would be Love Happens ($8.1m) and Extract ($4.3m), respectively, putting my prediction at $6.2m, well below the standards of these actors and the genre.
So, if I'm on the right track, what we end up with are some OK holds and some OK openings, but nothing special. Sounds like late August to me...
My prediction of what the full top 10 will look like:
1. The Expendables ... $13.6m ($4,159 Per Theater Average) -60.9%
2. Eat Pray Love ... $13.3m ($4,315 PTA) -42.5%
3. Nanny McPhee Returns ... $13.1m ($4,707 PTA)
4. Lottery Ticket ... $12.3m ($6,234 PTA)
5. Vampires Suck ... $10m ($3,358 PTA)
6. Piranha 3D ... $9.9m ($4,008 PTA)
7. The Other Guys ... $9.4m ($2,707 PTA) -46.0%
8. Inception ... $7m ($2,915 PTA) -38.0%
9. The Switch ... $6.2m ($3,082 PTA)
10. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World ... $6.2m ($2,199 PTA) -41.6%
Have thoughts on this new feature? Like it, don't like it, want something added? Shoot me an e-mail at webmaster@bucketreviews.com.
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