Well, after last weekend's predictions, my credibility in this arena has reached a new low. The only opener I came close to predicting with 100% accuracy was Piranha 3D. And that's unfortunate, because the highly entertaining bloodbath deserved better than its paltry box office total of $10.1m, much like fellow bomb Scott Pilgrim vs. the World did two weeks ago. But fear not... unlike Scott Pilgrim, Piranha 3D didn't cost very much to make and a sequel is already in the works. So long as another penis is dismembered by a flesh-hungry ancient fish in spectacular 3D, I'm totally game.
This weekend brings us two new films and another in re-release: the low-budget horror mock-doc The Last Exorcism, the urban action flick Takers, and a certain indie with 3D blue people that grossed next to nothing (I forget what it's called).
With a viral Internet marketing campaign and abundant use of handheld camera, The Last Exorcism is most conveniently compared to last year's smash-hit Paranormal Activity. But that's a tricky proposition because of two factors: 1) The Last Exorcism is rated PG-13 whereas Paranormal Activity was R, meaning they may find different audiences, and 2) Paranormal Activity's release pattern (midnight only, then limited, then wide) makes it impossible to form a true opening weekend comparison. For the record, Paranormal Activity made $21.1m in its first weekend of wide release, but I'm only including that figure because I may have gotten you to wondering.
I think a better comparison is The Haunting in Connecticut, which had a different style but similarly supernatural themes. It was also similarly PG-13, catered to a younger audience, and was distributed by mini-major Lionsgate. Also, The Haunting in Connecticut debuted the first week after many teens and college students went back to school from spring break, just as they doing are now from summer break. That Virginia Madsen-starrer grossed an even $23m opening weekend.
Another potential comparison of teen horror with better-than-average reviews and marketing is The Ring, which made $15m in its opening weekend back in 2002. Adjusting for inflation, that number would be around $17.8m today. However, if we want an August PG-13 horror comparison, we have to go back to 2001's The Others, which made $14.1m opening weekend but had legs that took it to $96.5m total, which The Last Exorcism is unlikely to have. If you appropriate The Others' run to be more front-loaded and account for inflation, the number comes close to $30m... which'd be a great, strong surprise for The Last Exorcism.
Other similar PG-13 horror comparisons include The Exorcism of Emily Rose ($30m, a true surprise when it was released), The Stepfather ($11.6m), The Unborn ($19.8m), and 1408 ($20.6m). So, removing outliers, the range seems to be high teens to mid-twenties. Because it falls within that range, I'm sticking with the Haunting in Connecticut comparison and saying $23 million.
Takers, on the other hand, has far fewer easy comparisons. The only example of a similarly-targeted August action film I can think of is S.W.A.T., which played to a massive $37.1m back in 2003. I think it's safe to say that isn't going to happen here. Takers doesn't have the buzz, the big theater count, or the widely-appealing stars. In fact, in terms of that last part, the presence of everybody's least favorite abusive boyfriend Chris Brown may actually hurt its box office take.
That being said, I think those prognosticators who are calling Takers an August dump-job that will gross in the single digits are wrong. Comparisons to Armored ($6.5m) and The Losers ($9.4m) just don't sit right with me, especially given the film has an ad campaign that has done a solid job targeting the African-American community. In this regard, I think Takers has more in common with its distributor Sony/Screen Gems' big hit last summer, Obsessed, which opened to a huge $28.6m. Of course, it doesn't have Beyoncé or that film's high theater count, so it has absolutely no chance of breaking into the 20s or even the mid-teens. But I say it's good for at least 2/5 of Obsessed's gross--yep, I'm sure feeling arbitrary tonight--which is $11.4 million.
Then there's the matter of the Avatar re-release. Even more so than is the case with Takers, there is a complete lack of applicable comparisons here. This substantial a re-release (811 theaters) hasn't occurred at this interval (9 months since initial release) in a very long time. Thus, trying to compare it to the re-releases of the Star Wars or Toy Story movies is just silly. All we know is that there probably is some degree of interest in seeing the film again on the big-screen despite the fact it's on DVD and Blu-Ray because A) it's the highest grossing film of all time so some people must be interested in an additional nine minutes of footage, B) audiences clearly identified the 3D and the IMAX factors as special the first time around, and C) it's being re-released in a dead month with little desirable competition. So what is there to do but throw out a number? I'll say the movie does a solid $7,500 per theater accounting for increased 3D and IMAX ticket prices (yep, I'm really pulling numbers out of my ass now), meaning a total of $6.1 million on the weekend. That'll easily get it past the $750m threshold Fox wants it to exceed for prestige.
My prediction of what the full top 10 will look like:
1. The Last Exorcism ... $23m ($8,003 Per Theater Average)
2. Takers ... $11.4m ($5,168 PTA)
3. The Expendables ... $8.5m ($2,501 PTA) -50.0%
4. Eat Pray Love ... $7.4m ($2,381 PTA) -38.9%
5. The Other Guys ... $6.4m ($2,012 PTA) -37.3%
6. Nanny McPhee Returns ... $6.3m ($2,252 PTA) -25.1%
7. Avatar ... $6.1m ($7,512 PTA0
8. Vampires Suck ... $5.5m ($1,701 PTA) -54.9%
9. Inception ... $4.9m ($2,357 PTA) -37.5%
10. Lottery Ticket ... $4.8m ($2,433 PTA) -54.9%
-No longer in the top 10- The Switch ... $4.5m ($2,231 PTA) -46.7%
-No longer in the top 10- Piranha 3D ... $3.9m ($1,566 PTA) -61.4%
Looks like late August, smells like late August, feels like late August. Next weekend, good movies will hopefully bloom anew.
Have thoughts on this new feature? Like it, don't like it, want something added? Shoot me an e-mail at webmaster@bucketreviews.com.
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