You want accurate predictions and, last week, for the most part, I delivered. With the exception of Machete, which I substantially overestimated, my guesses fared very well. I got within half a million of both the other openers, The American and Going the Distance, and didn't do too shabbily on the holdovers, either. I'm not saying this to boast, but rather just to revel in my first really accurate week at the box office analysis game.
This weekend could extend my winning streak or completely destroy it; it's make-or-break, as there is only one new wide release. That's Paul W.S. Anderson's fourth entry in his Resident Evil franchise, based on the popular video game. However, Resident Evil: Afterlife marks the first time protagonist Alice has dodged bullets in 3D--captured by the same camera that brought us Avatar, no less--so at least one new variable factors into the equation.
While 3D naysayers argue the technology is already starting to fade from public interest, citing the declining percentage of overall ticket sales it makes up for with each new film, Resident Evil: Afterlife seems like the type of film moviegoers will want to see in the format. Not to mention, the promotional campaign has been explicit about the fact that the picture was not rendered into 3D in post-production, but shot that way, which people understand means a better-looking final film. With this in mind, I'd say Resident Evil: Afterlife comes close to the upper echelon of 3D viewership, with likely 70% of ticket-buyers seeing it in 3D. Also, in addition to standard 3D screens, the movie is playing in Digital IMAX 3D, which tacks another couple bucks onto the price. The average premium paid for the extra dimension should near $4 a ticket.
As for historical comparisons, I don't think one has to look any farther than the other films in the series. The only other worthwhile comparison I might've considered taking into account would have been similar 3D features, but there aren't any unless one stretches to 3D horror films like My Bloody Valentine. But they're not really similar, so let's get down to it... The first Resident Evil grossed $17.7 million over its opening weekend in 2002. In 2004, Part 2, Apocalypse, jumped substantially to $23m. Three years after that, Extinction, the immediate predecessor to this new film, opened to $23.7m. This means Extinction was about even with Apocalypse after accounting for inflation, suggesting the amount of interested viewers hit a ceiling.
So let's assume the ceiling for these movies is $23m in 2004 dollars. Adjusting for inflation to today, that's $25.9m. But we must account for the $4 3D surcharge on 70% of tickets, which we'll assume come at an average base price of $8. That would mean the 3D version will take in $24.2m and the 2D version another $6.9m, bringing my final prediction for Resident Evil: Afterlife to a stellar $31.1 million.
Other than that, there are only a handful of indies coming out in limited release, and only one of them is likely to many any waves. It's Casey Affleck's documentary about Joaquin Phoenix's attempt to start a rap career, I'm Still Here, suspected by some to be a hoax. The movie opens in 19 sites and initial interest should be strong enough to manage a per theater average of around $8,000, but I'd be surprised if it got much higher than that because of the fact that it debuts nationwide on Video OnDemand in just two weeks.
My prediction of what the full top 10 will look like:
1. Resident Evil: Afterlife ... $31.1m ($9,710 PTA)
2. The American ... $6.3m ($2,224 PTA) -52.2%
3. Takers ... $5.4m ($2,465 PTA) -50.3%
4. Machete ... $4.1m ($1,531 PTA) -64.0%
5. Going the Distance ... $3.4m ($1,122 PTA)
6. The Last Exorcism ... $3.2m ($1,172 PTA) -56.4%
7. The Expendables ... $3.2m ($1,046 PTA) -51.7%
8. The Other Guys ... $2.9m ($1,291 PTA) -45.1%
9. Eat Pray Love ... $2.8m ($1,197 PTA) -41.7%
10. Inception ... $2.7m ($1,706 PTA) -40.9%
Historically, post-Labor Day weekend drops have been brutal, and I don't expect this weekend to be any exception.
Have thoughts on this new feature? Like it, don't like it, want something added? Shoot me an e-mail at webmaster@bucketreviews.com.
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