Now that we're done with all that Resident Evil nonsense, we can get on with an actually interesting weekend. (That's not an excuse for my high-balled prediction last Thursday, just a general statement that the box office field was painfully uninteresting.) This weekend, the movie getting all the commercial buzz is Easy A, a potential breakout for both up-and-comer Emma Stone and for the seemingly invincible Sony. Easy A has great reviews, but its R-rated, adult-targeted competitor, Ben Affleck's The Town, is meanwhile sucking up all the critical buzz. Not screened for critics but also expected to do well is Devil, a PG-13 horror film produced by M. Night Shyamalan. And likely to tank and finish last among the openers is the 3D animated flick with the voices of Justin Long and Hayden Panettiere, Alpha and Omega.
While Easy A seems to be the consensus' choice for #1 this weekend, I'm going to venture out on a limb and say The Town will champion. With good reviews to bring in the 35+ crowd, a stellar ad campaign that appeals to young males, a cast of desirable men who women won't mind watching, and region-centric material that the East Coast (especially New England) will be drawn to, Warner Bros have got themselves the complete package. Yeah, it's R-rated, but all the teenyboppers were planning on going to Easy A or Devil anyway. And yes, Ben Affleck's first film, Gone Baby Gone, also set in a lower-class Boston neighborhood, only opened to $5.5m, but that was Oscar bait with a different release strategy and far more limited appeal.
The best box office comparisons for The Town are The Departed, Mystic River, and Fever Pitch (no, that isn't a misprint), all set in Boston. The first also opened in the early fall to a stellar $28.9m in 2006, $30.7m when adjusted for inflation. Of course, I don't think anyone's under the impression that The Town could pull those numbers, because Affleck, Jon Hamm, and Jeremy Renner aren't Matt Damon, Jack Nicholson, and Leo DiCaprio as far as star power is concerned. Nor are they Sean Penn, Tim Robbins, and Kevin Bacon, but Mystic River, which grossed over $90m total, is further proof that these adult-oriented, East Coast crime-dramas have immense appeal. (That Clint Eastwood film only opened to around $10m, but its release strategy was different and its theater count was much lower, meaning if one were to directly compare it, one would have to account for increased front-loading for The Town.) Lastly, Fever Pitch ($12.4m, $13.5m adjusted for inflation) is a good comparison because it represents a well-reviewed, broadly appealing movie within its genre, but also one that's region-specific to Boston. As was the case with that Red Sox fan love-story, sometimes such a focus on setting can be alienating to those in other parts of the countries. Also, I think Affleck/Hamm/Renner are more synonymous to Fallon/Barrymore in terms of draw. As a result, I think the ideal prediction is an average of The Departed and Fever Pitch, meaning The Town opens to an exceptional $22.1 million.
Similarly, I think Easy A's number is best predicted by averaging those of two similarpictures. Those saying the movie will break out are comparing it to Mean Girls, which pulled an incredibly strong $24.4m opening back in 2004, $27.5m adjusted for inflation. There are a lot of similarities, especially the great reviews. Because of all the favorable word-of-mouth, this is the type of movie that not only teen girls will want to see; their moms may want to take them as well. That expands the audience considerably. However, Lindsay Lohan was already an established draw when Mean Girls came out; Emma Stone is just now becoming one. So that could lose some potential viewers. More pessimistically, one could equate Easy A with She's The Man, which starred Amanda Bynes, who's also in the supporting cast here. While that film didn't have as good of reviews, it was similarly high-concept (a modern Shakespeare adaptation) and was more equatable to Easy A in terms of its commercial prospects. It opened to $10.7m back in 2006, $11.4m adjusted for inflation. Thus, it seems logical to average Mean Girls and She's the Man, which would give Easy A a terrific $19.5 million opening, extending Sony's box office streak.
How well Devil does seems largely dependent on which member of teenage couples is choosing the movie: the girl or the boy. If she gets to decide more times than not, then we could see a rise in the aforementioned Easy A number. But if traditional gender stereotypes prevail and the guy picks, then look out for this cheap horror film. It is the iffiest opening of the weekend in my book, but it definitely has the potential to do well if it grabs enough under-25s, who are sure to make up over 75% of its audience. (If anybody over 25 was considering seeing it, then they were probably turned off by executive producer M. Night Shyamalan's widely advertised attachment to the project.) Some obvious teen-horror comparisons are The Unborn ($19.8m last year) and When a Stranger Calls ($21.6m in 2006, $23.0m inflated). That'd be $21.4m if we played the averages game, but that's not going to work in this case because Easy A will surely take away some of the teens who would've gone to see this on another weekend. How much that'll hurt Devil is anybody's guess; I'm going to say it opens to $16 million.
Then there's Alpha and Omega, which has poor reviews and isn't on anybody's radar except maybe that of the parents of young children. It's distributed by Lionsgate, who doesn't have much of a history releasing kiddie flicks. A good comparison would be their 2007 foray into the genre, Happily N'Ever After, which opened to $6.6m ($6.8m inflated) with a similar theater count. Another would be Summit Entertainment's third-tier animated film Astro Boy, which did a similar $6.7m last year. That averages out, of course, to an opening of $6.75m, which works out nicely because, with an average admission price $6.75--figuring a lot of child tickets--it implies about 1 million tickets sold. The reason this needs to be calculated is Alpha and Omega is being shown in 3D at many theaters, meaning the impact of the surcharge needs to be factored in. I think about 55% of tickets will be 3D, a little less than this summer's Despicable Me. When one does the ensuing math, it suggests Alpha and Omega will open to about $8.1 million this weekend.
So there it is, a high-grossing four way battle. If the top three are able to pull the kinds of numbers I've predicted, then this will be one profitable September weekend.
My prediction of what the full top 10 will look like:
1. The Town ... $22.1m ($7,725 PTA)
2. Easy A ... $19.5m ($6,828 PTA)
3. Devil ... $16.0m ($5,694 PTA)
4. Resident Evil: Afterlife ... $9.4m ($2,929 PTA) -64.7%
5. Alpha and Omega ... $8.1m ($3,086 PTA)
6. The American ... $3.5m ($1,425 PTA) -38.3%
7. Takers ... $3.4m ($1,590 PTA) -40.0%
8. Going the Distance ... $2.1m ($1,046 PTA) -44.6%
9. The Other Guys ... $2.0m ($1,095 PTA) -40.3%
10. Inception ... $1.7m ($1,303 PTA) -39.3%
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