Hey, how about that--I was relatively accurate last weekend! Aside from completely underestimating Takers, which almost everybody did, and wrongly assuming Nanny McPhee Returns would hold well, I was in the general ballpark on most everything. So let's hope for even more precision going into this weekend, which brings us three new movies, all with pretty big stars. The big trick is: this time, due to the Labor Day holiday, we're not just dealing with the standard Friday-Saturday-Sunday predictions, but throwing Monday into the mix as well.
The reviews on George Clooney's R-rated The American suggest it's a very quiet, contemplative movie for adults. Before we get to direct comparisons, however, there are some solid statistics we already have available to us. The American actually opened on Wednesday (to $1.7m), and diligent Hollywood Stock Exchange user and box office aficionado Yun Xia has dug back into the history-books and found several other adult-themed movies that did the same going into Labor Day weekend (thanks man!). The clearest comparisons are The Constant Gardener, which multiplied its Wednesday gross by 11.79 over the four-day weekend; Traitor, which multiplied by 12.63; and Vanity Fair, which multiplied by 10.45. Of those, Vanity Fair seems the best comparison because it featured a big star like Clooney (though Reese Witherspoon isn't as big) and had similarly so-so reviews meaning not-so-stellar long weekend word-of-mouth. So, accounting for a little more front-loading due to Clooney's name and the lukewarm reviews and giving The American a multiplier of 9.5, that'd put its four-day weekend at $16.2m.
But before I cement that prediction, let's take a look at a couple more comparisons. Clooney's Michael Clayton opened wide to $11.2m including its non-Holiday Monday, in just 300 fewer theaters. But that film had a lot of momentum on its side, with a lot of awards talk, which The American doesn't have. I would be inclined to put The American in the same ballpark or lower, due to this factor, but there's one more thing to account for: Michael Clayton opened opposite two similarly adult-targeted films, We Own the Night and Elizabeth: The Golden Age. The American, on the other hand, will be the first choice for most 35-plus adults, with only the weeks-old Eat Pray Love leftover to scrounge for sloppy seconds. Had Michael Clayton siphoned off half of the audiences of its two competitors, it would have had a four-day of $20.4m.
Another solid comparison is Michael Clayton director Tony Gilroy's second feature, Duplicity, starring similarly big stars Julia Roberts and Clive Owen. Including its non-holiday first Monday, that film opened to just under $15m -- pretty close to the aforementioned American prediction. In fact, accounting for the Labor Day boost, I now see no problem sticking with it. $16.2 million for Clooney, I say!
The American's big competitor for #1 is the also R-rated Machete, which is a bit of a wildcard. The movie is directly targeted at two distinct audiences--the 18-35 year-old Mexican-Americans and those who love campy movies--and both have varied track-records. The last film to play in this many theaters with such a clear Mexican-American theme was also made by director Robert Rodgriguez: 2003's Once Upon a Time in Mexico, which debuted to a strong $23.4m, or $25.2m including its opening Monday ($29.3m accounting for inflation). But that film played well outside of Hispanics, too, and it was the final part of a trilogy that had gained many fans on DVD. Machete is more specialized in interest.
Also, one wonders how the Arizona immigration situation might affect this film's box office; those who supported the law and saw the film's trailer that took a jab at it might feel alienated and see something else. Underexposed potential viewers might incorrectly assume the film has a lot of political material in it, between the trailer's Arizona reference and the presence of an anti-illegal immigration politician played by Robert DeNiro. Then again, even if the film's audience was 100% Latino, that wouldn't preclude it from doing bang-up bucks. In fact, one could make the case that just as it might deter those who supported Arizona's law, Machete might stir up a sort of nationalist rally among those who denounced it.
But the race factor is only half the battle with Machete. The film originated as a fake trailer in Rodriguez and Quentin Tarantino's Grindhouse, paying homage to low-budget, violent action films of years ago. Grindhouse didn't do very well, grossing only $11.6m in its opening run, $12.9m including its first Monday ($13.3 accounting for inflation). The full-length version of that picture including the Machete fake trailer hasn't yet been released on DVD, meaning it gained very few fans since its theatrical run in 2007. Then again, for this new movie's sake, perhaps it's better that viewers aren't reminded of its association with a box-office bomb that appealed mostly to hardcore movie buffs. Without a clear direction, I'm going to formulate my Machete prediction simply by averaging Once Upon a Time in Mexico and Grindhouse's inflation-adjusted numbers, with one minor tweak. Once Upon a Time in Mexico debuted in 23% more theaters, so to account for those who saw it just because it was playing at their local house, I'll adjust its number down a bit to $26m. The equation comes out to an opening four-day weekend of $19.7 million for Machete. I'm sure everyone at Fox would be very happy with that number, as it would certainly mean a win on the weekend.
The third film of the weekend is sure to finish as a footnote. It's the Drew Barrymore/Justin Long romantic-comedy Going the Distance, directed by former indie documentarian Nanette Burstein. One of the major complaints with the R-rated film's ad campaign is that it doesn't highlight that the film is actually somewhat raunchy, instead depicting something more innocent. By turn, the argument goes, Going the Distance will appeal mostly to the PG-13 crowd who cannot see it. I tend to agree, but I keep thinking of a PG-13 comparison: the Ashton Kutcher/Amanda Peet bomb, A Lot Like Love. In fact, my feeling on this is too strong to even look further -- I'm putting all my marbles in one comparison. Accounting for inflation and giving A Lot Like Love's first non-holiday Monday a 33% increase to account for greater Labor Day attendance, the figure works out to an even $9 million. It's a haphazard prediction, but I'm sticking with it.
My prediction of what the full FOUR DAY top 10 will look like:
1. Machete ... $19.7m ($7,378 PTA)
2. The American ... $16.2m ($5,739 PTA)
3. Takers ... $11.4m ($5,168 PTA) -44.4% on last (3-day) weekend
4. Going the Distance ... $9.0m ($2,970 PTA)
5. The Last Exorcism ... $8.3m ($2,888 PTA) -59.2%
6. The Expendables ... $8.3m ($2,443 PTA) -12.9%
7. Eat Pray Love ... $5.6m ($2,103 PTA) -17.8%
8. The Other Guys ... $5.3m ($2,033 PTA) -15.7%
9. Inception ... $4.6m ($2,700 PTA) -5.7%
10. Nanny McPhee Returns ... $4.2m ($1,551 PTA) -10.9%
Three R-rated movies on the same weekend -- you don't see that very often. Can they pull it out?
Have thoughts on this new feature? Like it, don't like it, want something added? Shoot me an e-mail at webmaster@bucketreviews.com.
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